The Nadia Nadim Effect

Nadia Nadim’s story is a touching one. If you’re not familiar with her story, then I highly recommend that you click. Nadia Nadim’s arrival to the NWSL has not only made us aware of her journey and story, but also briefly revitalized Sky Blue FC’s play-off hopes, who are all but mathematically eliminated from the play-offs..

There is no doubt that Nadim, has had an impact on Sky Blue’s push. But exactly how much of an impact has she had. In six games Nadim has 7 goals and 3 assists, with a 1.27 non–goals per 90, 3 of those goals are counted as game winning goals (all stats are from the NWSL website).

A few weeks ago, on this blog I lamented about Sky Blue’s conversion rate of .192 among one of the league’s worse. With the question being, was the team unlucky, or was the low conversion rate directly related to personnel. On one hand the underlying statistics suggested that Sky Blue wasn’t playing that badly. With a TSR of .496 it showed that there weren’t getting out played and that they were actually holding their own. The problem was that the team had 16 points from 16 games, with an average of 1 point per game (hard math I know). Whether was luck, or personnel was to blame for the lack of goals, Sky Blue needed goals.

Can Nadim keep scoring? (picture via Instagram)

With the arrival of Nadim though the team’s play hasn’t dramatically changed. In the 5 games that Nadim has started, the team’s underlying statistics haven’t changed. Their TSR is slightly higher at .503, showing that their position in the game hasn’t dramatically changed. In fact, Sky Blue has taken almost the same amount of shots. Before Nadim, the team averaged 12 shots per game. In the 5 games since Nadim has started, Sky Blue has taken 13.6 shots representing almost identical tallies. However in those 5 games the team has won 4 and lost 1. They’ve scored 12 goals in 5 games, where Nadim has not only scored 7 of those but has also assisted on another 3. To put that in perspective, the team in their previous 16 games had only scored 16 goals (16 seems to be the magic pre-Nadim number). Nadim has a personal conversation rate at a .58, the team is now converting at a .315. Correlation may not prove causation, but with very little changes in the team’s underlying stats you can almost definitely say: Nadim’s arrival has helped Sky Blue with what it needed most, goals.

All of this comes with a very large caveat, Nadim has only played in 5 games in the NWSL. Conversion rates, especially for individuals are particularly volatile, and there is no way that Nadim maintains a .58 conversion rate, which will fall to a more realistic number. The famous saying is form is temporary; class is permanent. It is going to be interesting to see what happens with Nadim, with 2 games left it wouldn’t be unimaginable for her form to continue or for the team to benefit from the extra attention that she draws to keep scoring goals. The question really is, how much of this is form and how much is Nadim herself. Yes, she has only scored 8 goals in 51 appearances for Denmark, but two of those were in the Algarve Cup knocking the US out of the tournament.

The real shame is that we probably will never know. Nadim most likely will be going back to Denmark after her loan, and most likely we will only see her again in a similar short loan, as she has hinted that she will continue to juggle soccer and her academic career in Denmark, where she is studying to be a doctor. Even though we might never know the answer, what we can definitely know, that Nadia Nadim almost single handedly pulled Sky Blue FC back into the NWSL play-off race.

Sky Blue FC 1-1 FC Kansas City

The short summary of this game is that Kansas City attacked while Sky Blue defended. Kansas City not only scored first, but dominated possession while Sky Blue looked to defend and hit Kansas City on the counter. The two team’s contrasting styles canceled out, leading to a pretty quiet game over all, with the majority of chances coming for Kansas City.

Formation:

Kansas City continued with their 4-4-2 diamond that they saw success with last year. Sky Blue came out in what appeared to be a 4-2-3-1. More intriguing than the formation was how Sky Blue where the players were deployed. Playing both left-footed Kelley O’Hara and Kendall Johnson at fullback, Kelley O’Hara played on the right, acting almost as a inverted fullback. Ahead of her was the young Australian fullback, Caitlin Foord, playing in the midfield. It will be interesting to see if Sky Blue keeps this deployment or if in the future Foord drops to the backline and either Johnson or O’Hara move out into the midfield.

While this off-season many people wondered if they would revert back to the 4-3-3 or 4-4-2 over the off-season. There were concerns this off-season if Amy Rodriguez would be able to play as the sole center forward in their preferred 4-3-3. But it seems that with Amy Rodriguez, Kansas City has stuck with the 4-4-2 for now.

Pressing Concerns:

Both of these teams are teams that want to force mistakes when their opponents have possession of the ball. How the teams pressed each other, really shows how they approached the game differently. Kansas City played more of an organized pressing system, akin to Barcelona, Looking to win possession and then keep the ball. On the other hand Sky Blue pressed to create attacking chances, using their press to quickly transition to direct counter attacks.

Kansas City’s pressure was based on shape. What that meant is that while one player stepped in to pressure the ball, the other defenders looked to block the passing lanes looking to intercept a bad pass. But rarely did they commit more than one person to the ball, looking to force a mistake in possession or Sky Blue to send the ball deep.

Kansas City Structured Pressing:

When Kansas City retrieves possession, they immediately are able to keep possession because of the players defending the passing lames immediately becoming passing options. They maintain their spacing and structure.

Like Barcelona, the ball is the ultimate prize. Theoretically, they can’t be hurt when they have the ball, so immediately after losing it they try to win it back. On the other hand once they have the prize, there’s no reason for them to waste possession. Their structure then helps them both in offense and defense. Getting the ball back is enough, it doesn’t matter if the ball is sent deep or they win it in a tackle. Getting the ball back is success enough. That is why it is important for the team to work as a unit.

 

For example here you see Tymrak pressuring Katy Freels. Kansas City had just lost the ball and are quickly trying to get it back. The other three Kansas City defenders sit in passing lanes, preventing an easy outlet. Kansas City does a good job of using the sideline as a defender, Freels has no options to her right or in front of her. She is in turn forced to either play a blind back pass to Johnson, turn in possession, or play the ball out. Kansas City presses trying to strangle an opponent.

Freels here decides to turn putting her back to Tymrak. Tymrak recognizes that Freels is now the pressing “responsibility” of Amy Rodriguez and drops into space. While Freels ends of blindly clearing the ball, where the ball is retrieved by the Kansas City defense, you can see that the Kansas City attackers are all anticipating the ball coming to them. They’re all watching the ball, trying to win possession back each player with their own responsibility in the action.

Sky Blue Chaos Theory:

On the other hand, Sky Blue’s pressure is more of a swarm mentality. They don’t maintain shape as well in their pressing. Instead they want to win the ball back with a tackle, so they can quickly counter from possession. Sky Blue didn’t do a lot of pressing in their opponents half, ceding that half. However once, Kansas City got the ball into their final third, Sky Blue crashed the ball hoping to win the ball back to trigger a quick counter.

 

For example here, as Kansas City enters the final third, you can see 4 Sky Blue players moving towards the ball, with two of them trying to make the quick tackle. However, just outside of the shot on the right, is a Kansas City player making a run for the quick outlet for the ball. This was not atypical, because so many people are committed to attacking the ball carrier, Kansas City was able to keep possession with quick outlets and switching the field. Sky Blue is doubly relying on their player’s athleticism. They need it to press the ball, but also to recover quickly and get back into position after committing to the ball.

Here you see the scramble after a swarm. There is acres of space for Kansas City to run into.What ends up happening is that there were a lot of 1 on 1 situations for Kansas City, where Sky Blue defenders were forced to attempt to hold up play waiting for help. Kansas City though, didn’t really take advantage of these, often they were instead too patient with the ball. Holding it in space waiting for passes to develop and trying to keep the ball rather than push their advantage.

Amy Rodriguez:

While many people questioned how Rodriguez’s athleticism would translate to the structured system that Kansas City played previously. Kansas City showed that she added a wrinkle to their system, but didn’t overhaul it. What Rodriguez provided was another option. Against teams that press and as dramatically as Sky Blue, Rodriguez provided a more direct option. Lauren Holiday moved a little bit deep and farther from the goal, seemingly more content to send through balls than receive them.

Rodriguez’s speed created chances, though she only put one of them away, you can only expect her to get sharper after a year off. Her speed and work rate also helps in pressing the ball and winning it back quickly. Even though Kansas City can’t play their 4-3-3 with her, she helps their system more overall. Formation isn’t how a team plays, but only how its set up. While Kansas City is not playing a 4-4-2, Amy Rodriguez allows them to play their possession and pressing system more effectively.

Conclusion:

Sky Blue was lucky to come away with a draw, only putting two shots on goal, both from Katy Freels. However you can only expect the two teams to get better at what they do as the season goes on. Perhaps the return Christie Rampone, will add a little bit more organization to their fast pressing system. Lloyden also looked shaky with the ball at her feet, perhaps why they looked to be aggressive with the ball. Sky Blue’s goal from an off-side’s by Kansas City had a total of 5 passes before the ball hit the net.

But Sky Blue is playing with fire, yes they were very efficient, but last year they dominated the shot count. They lead the league in TSR, consistently out shooting their opponents. This week they were out shot 14-5. And on another night where Amy Rodriguez is more clinical, they lose this game by a wide margin.